Since the pandemic began, the threat of a second, deadlier wave of coronavirus has captured the public imagination. The fear, which provokes viral Facebook posts and influences government strategy, is that this pandemic will follow a trajectory similar to that of the 1918 Spanish flu. Two-thirds of the 50 million who died would do so from October to December 1918, during a so-called “second wave.” But this fear may be misdirected. The world is still yet to hit the peak of the first wave. And, until we get a vaccine, it likely never will.
Across the world, the pandemic is still accelerating. The first case was reported in China in late December. It took three months from that date to reach 1 million cases. The leap from 12 million cases to 13 million cases took just five days. A